What will happen to the dollar (ruble) in the near future - forecasts and expert opinions. What will happen to the dollar (ruble) in the near future - forecasts and expert opinions Reasons for the growth and fall of the ruble - the main factors

A stock trader's forecast for the coming week will help you understand where the dollar will go relative to the ruble, what currency traders are preparing for, and how to trade on the stock exchange yourself.

Let's make a dollar forecast ourselves

Every weekend I analyze the market situation and determine trading strategy for the coming week. My working tool is the usd/rur pair. If I make a forecast for the ruble, I will understand where the Russian RTS index will move, because the dollar exchange rate is used in its calculation.

The main forecast tool is the dollar index

To understand where the US currency will move relative to the ruble in the fall of 2016, it is necessary to assess the balance of power in the dollar index. To do this, visit the site with stock quotes online investing.com.

The weekly chart of the dollar index shows that last week the price stopped at the upper limit of the range. The highest point of the range of 100.31 was recorded on March 8, 2015. Since then, each subsequent price peak in the trading range has been lower than the previous one. Such price dynamics indicate that the dollar may be preparing for an upward surge.

This scenario will be realized when the trend line is broken from top to bottom on the weekly chart. As long as the price is below this line, the possibility remains that the dollar will decline from the top of the price range.

USD/RUR currency pair forecast

On the daily chart of the usd/rur pair, downward dynamics remain. The dollar is declining against the ruble and is moving towards the lower border of the downward channel.

If the price remains below the yellow line, the price of the dollar relative to the ruble will decrease. When the yellow line breaks out, the price can test the upper boundary of the descending channel from bottom to top.

Brent oil price forecast

As can be seen on the weekly chart, the potential for growth in the price of Brent oil to 59.26 remains. The target was calculated using the Thomas Demark system.

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The ruble exchange rate forecast for September 2016 is positive due to the improving economic situation, as well as the rise in the price of black gold. The Russian government expects that in the future the ruble will continue to strengthen against all world currencies.

The rise in the price of black gold in the summer led to a slight stabilization in the market and allowed the state to replenish the budget. According to the results of the first half of the year, the budget deficit amounted to 4% of GDP, although previously experts predicted an excess of expenditures by 4.3%. Despite the slight improvement in this indicator, it still remains low, as the target value is 3 percent. The oil industry has a significant impact on the state's economy; it brings in 35% of budget revenues. In the old days, when 1 barrel of oil cost $100, the share of revenues from oil sales was 55 percent.

1. High stakes.
2. Dividend payment period.
3. Raising standards Central Bank.

Experienced IMF analysts have compiled a fresh forecast for September 2016, according to which GDP will worsen by 1.2%, and not by 1.5%, as previously predicted. As a result of this, the ruble will continue to strengthen in the fall.

Many experts are confident that in the second half of 2016 the ruble will continue to strengthen against the US dollar. The main reasons are: a further increase in the cost of oil, as well as the willingness of investors after Brexit to invest their savings in risky assets.

Experts assure that stability will appear in the dollar/ruble pair in the fall. A strong strengthening of the ruble is not expected, as this will negatively affect the process of restoring the state’s economy. Based on all this, we can conclude that in September 2016, 1 US dollar will cost 65 rubles.

Expert Gleb Zadoya assures that a sharp strengthening of the ruble is not expected in the future. It is even possible that the Russian government will deliberately weaken the ruble against other world currencies in order to replenish its budget.

Alfa Bank employees allow the ruble to fluctuate in September. Actions major players market can cause the dollar/ruble pair to undergo wide fluctuations. For a short time, the ruble may fall to 75, but such a fall will not last long. The main factor that led to the growth of the ruble is the rise in price of black gold. However, in the fall, the rise in oil prices may slow down slightly.

Stabilization in the oil industry

The oil industry is still searching for stability between production levels and demand for oil. Despite numerous forecasts at the beginning of 2016 that the market would become stable in the second half of the year, it remains in an uncertain state. Consumption depends on economic development. The price of oil largely depends on the Chinese economy, which is its main consumer. Previously, the growth of the Chinese economy was stable at 7 percent, but last year China faced a crisis stock market and a decline in exports. As a result, this had a negative impact on the Chinese economy, which in turn led to a reduction in demand for black gold and, accordingly, to its reduction in price.

Another factor that led to cheaper oil was the referendum on Britain's exit from the EU. If the UK leaves the EU, the GDP of not only the UK itself, but also all countries included in the EU, will decrease. European Union. In the event of such an outcome, the cost of one barrel may fall to $35, and this, as you understand, will lead to a depreciation of the ruble in relation to all world currencies.

The Russian government assures that the forecast for the fall of 2016 is favorable for our compatriots. Analysts suggest that, at best, the ruble will maintain its current position. Under unfavorable circumstances, the ruble will fall to 75.

The value of the ruble in September 2016 will depend on the price of black gold. If the price of oil remains in the range of 40-45 dollars per barrel, then the dollar will cost 67-70 rubles. If the price of oil continues to rise to $50, then the ruble will maintain its position in the fall. The dollar exchange rate in September 2016 may fall to 61 rubles, provided that black gold costs $55. Some experts suggest the ruble will fall to 80 rubles. For this to happen, oil prices must fall to $30.

Hello, dear readers of the financial magazine “site”! Today we will try to answer the questions: what will happen to the dollar in the near future; how much the ruble and dollar will cost in 2019; when the crisis in Russia ends and so on.

After all, the current economic situation is causing unrest among Russian citizens due to its total instability . Stability national currency causes concern, because all people are worried about the well-being of their own family, some are embarrassed by the rise in prices for essential products. Many people save money in rubles and are worried about their savings.

Anyway, and businessmen, and housewives, and students, and pensioners are concerned with one question: what will happen to the ruble/dollar in the near future? No one can give an exact answer to these questions; even experienced analysts hesitate to make specific forecasts.

Some experts insist that our currency will gradually strengthen, while others, on the contrary, advise waiting for the ruble to fall soon. Which one is right? People are puzzled and looking for answers to these questions.

So, from this article you will learn:

• What will happen to the dollar in the near future;
• What will happen to the ruble and what will be the ruble exchange rate + dollar exchange rate forecast for 2019;
• What will happen to the ruble in the near future - latest news + our forecasts for the ruble exchange rate.

Having read the material to the end , you will learn our vision from the forecast of the ruble and dollar exchange rates.

Do you want to know what will happen to the dollar in the near future, what will happen to the ruble, etc., then read our article to the end

1. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - scenarios and forecasts + expert opinions 📊

Everyone knows perfectly well that the exchange rate of the Russian national currency directly depends on the price of oil. Sanctions carried out by Western countries also affect the formation of the national currency. It is difficult to say what will happen to the ruble in 2019, even based on the policies of the Central Bank.

The motive for introducing sanctions against Russia was political actions in Ukraine, which began in 2013, when the revolution began in Ukraine. As a result, one part of the population began to resist. Residents of the Crimean Peninsula were the first to express their resistance.

The Autonomous Republic was the first to express a desire to secede from unitary Ukraine. So, in 2014 a referendum was held, which attracted more than 83 % votes for secession from Ukraine and the further annexation of the peninsula to the Federation as a subject.

The international community, led by the United States, considered the annexation of the peninsula to Russia as a consequence hostilities And act of aggression in relation to the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, despite the fact that the residents of Crimea they wanted it themselves separation from Ukraine.

As is known, October 14, 2014, candidate countries for the European Union, joined the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Brussels. These sanctions limit Russian banks' access to global capital. They also influenced the restriction of the work of such industries in Russia as oil And aircraft manufacturing.

In particular, restrictions apply to such companies oil and gas industry Russia:

• Rosneft;
• Transneft;
• "Gazpromneft".

The following Russian banks were hit by sanctions:

• "Sberbank of Russia";
• "VTB";
• "Gazprombank";
• "VEB";
• Rosselkhozbank.

The sanctions did not spare industry either. Russian Federation:

• "Uralvagonzavod";
• "Oboronprom";
• "United Aircraft Corporation".

The sanctions consist of a prohibition for residents of the European Union and their companies to carry out transactions with securities whose expiration date more than 30 days , assistance to Russia in the production of oil products.

In addition, Russians are prohibited transactions with European accounts, investments, securities and even consultations European companies. The European Union also prohibited the transfer to Russia technologies, equipment And intellectual property (programs, developments) that can be used in the defense or civilian industries.

Introduced sanctions against some Russian companies that were prohibited from supplying goods, services and special-purpose technologies to the European Union.

The restrictions also affected many officials who are prohibited from using their assets located in any EU country, not to mention entering the EU territory, which is also prohibited.

Canada has imposed similar sanctions. Citizens who are on the restrictive list of this country are prohibited from visiting it for any purpose, and all assets located in the country are frozen. Also, to companies subject to sanctions, Canadian companies do not have the right to provide financing for a period of more than 30 days.

Sanctions imposed by the US authorities relate, first of all, to the supply of technologies and programs to support Russian military forces to Russian territory. The sanctions also affected the ban on the supply of space components and technologies to Russia.

Now Russia is prohibited from using spacecraft that were developed by US forces or that contain elements developed by the state. As a result of this ban, Russia was unable to launch the Astra 2G device.

America has banned the issuance of a list of Russian banks loan for a period of more than 90 days .
All sanctions imposed by other states against Russia include a ban on the entry of an authorized list of persons into the territory of the country, the freezing of their assets located on the territory of the state, a ban on Russia participating in the capital market, as well as a ban on any trade and economic relations among companies and banks and so on.

As we see, the sanctions imposed are good hit the economy and development of the Russian Federation. Is it possible to do something to ensure the normal functioning of the country and stabilize the economy?

Some experts express their opinion about actions on the part of Russia to lift sanctions or prevent their tightening.

First of all, it is recommended to refuse to support the militias in Donbass. It is clear that Crimea will no longer become Ukrainian, but hiding refugees in different cities of Russia can prevent the emergence of new sanctions.

Russia needs to take a neutral position and not respond to the sanctions imposed by the European Union. In response to Russia's sanctions, the European Union is introducing retaliatory bans. Moreover, the EU and the US have more leverage than Russia.

Russia needs to be friends with those countries that have not yet imposed sanctions against the Federation, thereby establishing its economic ties with them. This primarily concerns Middle East countries .

Having cooperated, you can issue joint bonds, investment projects. The Russian authorities themselves understand this, but have not yet taken decisive steps.

Moreover, such a friendly policy with Asian countries will help Russia establish your export. Trade in petroleum products is currently at a low level, and all because prohibitions And sanctions.

Expanding supplies of oil and natural gas will help Russia achieve its share of stabilizing the national currency over time.

Neither side wants to make concessions. Europe is afraid of Ukraine turning into a so-called black hole in its very center. And at the same moment, no one wants a final break with Moscow.

In this situation, it would be nice if Russia made a compromise, which would undoubtedly play a role. You shouldn’t expect such actions from the US government; by bending to Russia, Trump will finally lose his rating, which is already not at the highest level.

What will happen to the ruble and the dollar in the near future - analysis and expert opinions

2. What will happen to the dollar in the near future and what will happen to the ruble in 2019 📈📉

Behind last years The exchange rate of the Russian national currency fell by more than than 20%. Such strong fall The population has not yet seen the ruble. Many people are puzzled by the question of how the national currency will behave in the future. This is especially concerning for people who are going buy or sell assets, real estate, foreign currency and just people worried about the situation in the country. By the way, you can buy or sell currency, shares and other assets from this broker .

The ruble exchange rate is falling, and it is unknown whether there will be enough money for a standard basket of essential goods, not to mention luxury items.

The current situation in relations with Ukraine, the fall in prices for oil and natural gas, and external restrictive sanctions forced the ruble to change its stable position. And oil and gas, as you know, accounts for more than 70% of the total state budget.

Also, the falling exchange rate of the ruble will affect some countries that depend on cash flows from Russia, such as the Caucasus and some Asian countries. The result of this is the depreciation of the national currencies of these states.

Conflict situations in Syria and Ukraine only complicate the situation of the national currency.

The work of the Central Bank with foreign currency did not bring the required results in stabilizing the ruble exchange rate. According to some officials, there is only one way left that affects the ruble exchange rate.

They claim that they will now influence the exchange rate through inflation targeting. basis method is a set of measures that can affect the rate of inflation and credit policy countries.

Experts identify three main scenarios regarding the state of the ruble:

1. optimistic
2. alarming
3. realistic.

1st scenario - Optimistic

If you listen to the government, then Russia is on the way to restoration And economic growth . The price of a barrel of oil is expected to stabilize in the countries of Asia and Korea, which will rise to $95, and the dollar should regain its former price value 30-40 rubles.

The percentage of GDP will change due to the lifting of economic sanctions imposed by Western countries against Russia, which will affect the increase in the indicator by 0,3-0,6 % . Such changes are expected in the fall of 2019.

2nd scenario - Alarming scenario

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Collapses in the oil market only worsen the situation regarding the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate against the dollar. If we turn to statistical data, we can say that in 2016 the average dollar exchange rate to the ruble was 68 rubles, now the American dollar is worth 65-75 rubles.

Our government’s plans, according to some analysts and experts, do not include taking measures to stabilize national work. Export development is where the state’s efforts are directed.

Of course, the export of goods will bring the country additional income, as Russia copes with a production deficit. The capacity of the state production forces does not allow processing the harvest collected by Russian farmers and earth workers.

You should not expect the ruble exchange rate to stabilize its performance. If we look at the statistics 2014-2015, then we can recall that the percentage of expectations for a decrease in the level of internal gross product, was equal to 0.2, but already at the beginning of the next year, this economic indicator reached almost 5% .

The decline of the economy cannot have a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate. When calculating this percentage decline in GDP, the cost per barrel of oil is taken as a basis. And also the terms and conditions of all prohibitions and sanctions. So low economic indicators, whatever one may say, they are reducing investment attractiveness potential internal and external investors. And this, in turn, significantly reduces the flow of material resources into the country, which has a detrimental effect on the Russian economy.

With such far from optimistic data, we can say that the ruble exchange rate will begin to lose its current position.

There will be several reasons for this:

• The first factor is forecasting a decline in oil prices on the world market. This primarily concerns natural gas, which through its exports brings a large share of the country’s income. The same situation is predicted in the regions of Japan, America and Europe.
• the second factor is the geopolitics of the country. The recent annexation of Crimea led to the emergence of economic sanctions from Western states, which also prevent the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate. The development of the Crimean peninsula entailed a large outflow of capital from the country.

In such events, GDP is expected to decline to an indicator that will be 3-3,5% . The dollar will stabilize, its value will be 50-65 rubles.

3rd scenario - Realistic scenario

As the results of the vote held on June 22, 2015 show, the EU will not lift sanctions against Russia. We can confidently say that sanctions will not be lifted and they will remain at their current level. With a possible escalation with Ukraine, which is actively developing, the sanctions will only intensify.

As for the price of oil, in this situation it will remain the same price of 40-60 dollars per barrel. GDP level will approach zero, and according to some analysts and World Bank forecasts, GDP in Russia will have a negative indicator. A fall GDP will be approximately 0,7- 1 % .

Reasons for the fall and rise of the ruble. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - forecasts and opinions

3. Reasons for the growth and fall of the ruble - the main factors 📋

In the current situation, every citizen of Russia monitors the behavior of the ruble on the foreign exchange market. Forex market. Many factors influence the depreciation and appreciation of the exchange rate. And now, more than ever, it is important for Russians not only to preserve their capital, but also to increase it. To do this, we have written an article about what a novice trader needs to know for successful Forex trading.

What influences the behavior of the national currency?

* Ruble growth factors

Among the many reasons, we can highlight those that have positive effect on the behavior of the national currency, namely:

• Country Politics. This factor directly associated with the ruble exchange rate, especially in the current situation today. Of course, most government decisions are made for the benefit of the country and are aimed at the development of Russia.
• Securities . Investments from Western partners in securities and the assets of Russian companies contribute to the stabilization of the ruble on the world market. But, unfortunately, investing in securities as a process is poorly developed. Perhaps, soon, Western investors will become more actively invest your capital while receiving income in the form of dividends.
• Oil price. Everyone has long known that Russia has rich oil resources . Moreover, there is enough oil not only to meet the needs of the country, but also to export it to countries that do not have such a resource. By selling oil, Russia enriches its the state budget. That is, if the price of oil falls, then the country receives less income.
• Population's attitude towards the national currency. It’s not immediately clear what the meaning is in these words; people treat him normally. People stopped trusting national currency, deposits in rubles began to decrease. But this significantly affects the ruble exchange rate. The more the national currency is attracted, the better the country’s lending policy will become, and accordingly, economic growth will not be long in coming. Moreover, the ideal situation is when foreign investors want to invest money in rubles. But, for this, first of all, there must be economic stability. Therefore, residents of the Russian Federation, like residents, so Foreigners, have a great influence on the stability of the national economy and on the ruble exchange rate, in particular.
• Increasing the rate of national production. Increasing this indicator will allow not only to fulfill the planned production volumes, but also to exceed it. A high production volume will make it possible to meet not only the needs of the country, but also to export goods and products, which will bring additional income to the state budget.

* Factors in the fall of the ruble

Along with all the positive factors, there are also factors negatively affecting the ruble exchange rate . They depreciate the ruble exchange rate in relation to other currencies.

These factors have a huge impact, and our government should take serious measures to prevent them.

1. Outflow of Russian capital. This is, first of all, the movement of assets to foreign countries. The unstable position of the ruble forces investors to transfer money and their investments into foreign currency. By exchanging our cash savings into another currency, we ourselves, without knowing it, provide stability of a foreign state and its exchange rate. This is how capital is withdrawn from Russia. This has a devastating effect on the position of the Russian national currency. The result of such negative actions for the country is the decline of industry and the economy as a whole. People refuse to invest money in Russian economy, thereby ensuring low welfare.
2. Foreign exchange rate. In this situation, the leading currency is the one that has a strong position in the global foreign exchange market. It is impossible to influence this. This currency, first of all, is the dollar, which has a strong position, thanks to constant measures by the United States aimed at strengthening of the country's national currency. America is confidently strengthening its position. With the introduction of measures to stabilize the dollar exchange rate by America, the ruble is losing its position. It is simply impossible to take measures to prevent the depreciation of the exchange rate in such a situation, even with all the forces of the Russian economy.
3. The game of the population with exchange rates. Most Russians have a desire to make money on exchange rates. They invest their savings not in rubles, but in dollars or euros, after looking at stable foreign exchange rates. In this way, people ensure secure storage of their savings through a stable currency. At moments when the ruble exchange rate fell sharply, huge transfers were made exchanging Russian money into foreign currencies, which also ensures a drop national course. Such actions confirm the fact that Russians do not trust the government, especially their promises that the ruble exchange rate will soon stabilize.
4. Central Bank measures. During the depreciation of the national currency, the bank refuses to convert the ruble into the dollar. This situation could prevent a significant fall in the ruble.
5. Share of gross domestic product. Russian production, by and large, stands still; industrial plants are not expanding. The country produces such a small share of its own goods and products that the income received from their sales is only enough to pay wages to workers. State-owned enterprises stand still, working on old equipment. The equipment that remains from the times of the Soviet Union does not allow us to operate at the power that is necessary for the development of the economy and the state as a whole. All this leads to people's distrust of domestic production, forcing them to buy imported goods.
6. Economic stagnation. This factor is a consequence of the low share of GDP in the country. Stagnation, that is, stagnation of the national economy, is the result of preference for foreign goods when choosing a particular product. And this is not strange, because imported goods offer higher quality for approximately the same price category as domestic producers. The West is known for its advanced technologies production, which, unfortunately, Russia cannot yet boast of. Thus, by giving preference to goods from another producing country, we do not contribute to the development of the Russian economy and reduce the country’s balance of payments, which directly affects the depreciation of the national currency.

4. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - expert opinion 🗒

As mentioned above, experts cannot come to a common denominator and no one can determine the specific economic situation in the country, since their opinions are quite contradictory. But one thing can be said: 2019 will clearly be a difficult test for Russians, national economy and for ruble positions.

To understand the situation with the dollar, it is worth mentioning the forecasts of some economic experts on this matter.

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Through the “Instruments” tab, the purchase and sale of instruments (shares, currencies, etc.) is available. The Analytics tab provides reviews, opinions and forecasts

Former Russian Finance Minister, Alexey Kudrin , believes that the country's economy is subject to a huge recession in the near future. This opinion was inspired by the current political situation. As a result, the purchasing power of Russian citizens will decrease, which in turn will affect the economy as a whole, not to mention the ruble exchange rate.

Modern economist Vladimir Tikhomir , I completely agree with Kudrin’s opinion. According to the economist, the economic recovery and the achieved level of stability are only a temporary phenomenon, which will soon lead to the collapse of the ruble as a national currency.

The fall of the ruble as a national currency and the strong growth of the dollar portends Nikolai Salabuto . Occupying the post of head of the Finnam Management company, he associates the reason for this situation with the rapid fall in oil prices over the course of several months.

According to the expert, the American national currency will rise to the level 200 rubles per dollar .

Igor believes that this was influenced by several factors:

• restrictive sanctions, which will last at least until next year;
• the price of oil, which will decline. This is due to Western competitors who export “black gold” for more favorable conditions. The United States increases oil exports every year, thereby “cutting off the oxygen” for large Russian supplies;
• national economy, which completely depends on the environment and economic situation in the country. This industry cannot develop independently and directly depends on the geopolitical situation. The Russian economy requires constant modernization and development by government agencies.
• US Federal Reserve, whose policies will be associated with certain activities.

Igor Nikolaev expresses his opinion about the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Igor believes that today’s measures and methods of the Central Bank are absolutely correct, and there is no need to rethink the bank’s policy.

But this will not in any way affect the stabilization of the national currency, the fall of which cannot be prevented. To eliminate this situation, according to the head of the Finnam Management company, it is necessary to eliminate the destructive factors mentioned above, since they all have an impact on the ruble exchange rate.

Sergey Khestanov , director of ALOR Group of Companies, believes that the factors behind the depreciation of the ruble can be divided into two categories: subjective and objective factors.

Subjective factors include those that have no justification from a political, legal or economic point of view. Here Khestanov includes, first of all, the opinions of experts (since each of them expresses their original point of view, guided by certain factors), as well as the outflow of funds.

Objective factors include those processes that directly affect the ruble exchange rate. These include external sanctions of other states, and external debt countries.

The behavior of these factors is impossible to predict, but the analyst is confident that the price of oil will $74 per barrel, will lead to an even greater fall in the ruble. This price will further reduce 10-15 % from today's value of the ruble.

The opinion of a modern financial analyst, Vitaly Kulagin , more encouraging. He believes that the position of the ruble today is the starting one. The analyst says that already in 2019 the national currency will adapt to the current situation and begin grow .

These are the opinions of leading analysts, as you can see, they are completely contradictory and do not have a single consensus. Before accepting the position and opinion of any of them, you need to understand for yourself the strength of the factors influencing the position of the national currency.

5. Oil forecast for 2019 - news and forecasts 🛢

The cost of oil depends on the value of the dollar compared to the ruble. This dependency is displayed as follows: when the dollar rises, oil price decreases, respectively the ruble is losing ground . When oil prices rise, the dollar falls and the ruble rises.

Graph of the dependence of the value of the ruble on the cost of oil

Impossible to predict oil price in 2019. External Economic Bank predicts the cost in 6 $0 per barrel and above . At the same time, the resistance level for this price is at $70, and the support level is at $42.

Thanks to the news about the reduction in oil production and the extension of this restriction, the cost of a barrel of oil is rising. Resistance at this stage is $69-70. If these levels are “broken”, the price of oil will probably “go” to $98-100. If it breaks down $58, it goes into the range of $53-58

At the beginning of 2016, the price of oil took the position of the absolute minimum over the last decade and was equal $28 per barrel. That is, the price of oil can take any price at any time of the year.

6. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - the coming years: latest news + expert forecasts of leading banks 📰

For a long time, the ruble has been unable to stabilize its position relative to others. foreign currencies, such as dollar And Euro. Due to difficult economic circumstances, the ruble has lost most of its value.

Some foreign countries, experiencing economic crises, also observed a decline in the value of their national currency. Foreign policy actions carried out by the state force many analysts and experts to give different forecasts about the economic situation of the Federation and the exchange rate of the national currency, in particular.

Fluctuations in the ruble may be associated with various domestic and foreign policy actions on the part of the state and its government.

The World Bank gives quite comforting forecasts regarding the ruble exchange rate and oil prices . According to the most respectable bank, the ruble will stabilize in 2019, and a dollar will cost approximately 58-60 Russian rubles . As for the price of oil, it will stabilize at $63 per barrel.

Chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina , recently expressed her opinion on the country’s economy in an interview for a leading TV channel. She did not name the prices of the ruble and oil, but said that the policy pursued by the United States to implement measures to strengthen the dollar would also support the currencies of some countries, including Russia. The fall in the national exchange rate, according to the chairman of the Central Bank, was due to the fall in oil prices, as well as the closure of the opportunity to enter the global financial market.

Vnesheconombank believes that in 2019 the price per US dollar will be equal to 55-58 rubles, if OPEC's policy will help raise prices per barrel of oil to $75-80.

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development insists that financial cash flows, sent to our country, will be reduced by at least 10 percent. The reason for this opinion was the huge internal loans of the state among banks, as well as external restrictions on loans. There is a threat of rapid exhaustion of production capacity, as a result of a reduction in investment and simple financial flows.

We should not forget that an industry such as oil and gas will also suffer due to lack of funding, and as a consequence of the inability to operate at full capacity. A change in the supply of raw materials to other countries will undoubtedly affect currency relations, which will not benefit our currency.

One of the Canadian banks Scotiabank , the third largest in the country, does not give the most optimistic forecasts for the exchange rate of the Russian national currency. One American dollar will cost 69 rubles by the end of the year.

According to forecasts of one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman Sachs , by 2019 the national currency exchange rate will be equal to 60 rubles per dollar. The price of oil will fluctuate, but by the end of next year it will be around $70 per barrel.

All world banks They all agree that the ruble exchange rate is successfully strengthening. Forecasting a rise in oil prices cannot but rejoice. But, to boost the economy as a whole, we will have to stock up patience And baggage of actions, because you shouldn’t expect a quick return to the previous situation.

7. Frequently asked questions about ruble and dollar exchange rates 📢

Question No. 1. Is it true that the dollar will be abolished in 2019?

The issue of abolishing and limiting the American currency has been agitating the population for some time. From time to time this issue is raised in some political statements and legislative projects.

At the moment, the government is taking all kinds of actions to reduce dollar turnover in the country. Sergey Glazyev, who holds the post of presidential adviser, proposed his plan for economic development countries. One of the points of the plan is precisely to reduce dollar turnover in the country. Glazyev further explained this by saying that the United States is already developing a plan to limit the use of the dollar in the country, and this plan will be a retaliatory strike.

It is clear that it will not be possible to completely exclude the dollar from the country, since this currency is the basis of the financial world system. State policy is primarily aimed at eliminating dollar currency from small sectors of the economy. Such actions will undoubtedly lead to the growth of the Russian national currency.

For example, trading a national resource of Russia, like natural gas, for rubles, and not for dollars, will force many states to use the ruble, which will force the dollar to depreciate in relation to the ruble. In cases where large countries decide to sell American treasury bonds, thereby getting rid of the dollar, the entire financial system The USA will collapse instantly.

General Director of City Express Alexey Kichatov estimates the chances of abolishing the dollar in the country as minimal. Kichatov states that this will be a powerful blow to the Russian economy.

In addition, he predicts the difficulties that the Russian people expect, since the population's savings are, to a greater extent, stored in dollars.

Anton Soroko does not exclude partial disappearance of the dollar in Russia . According to the analyst, this will take a lot of time, which will ultimately lead to the emergence of two shadow turnover rates. He cites Venezuela as an example. Trying to combat the outflow of capital, the authorities limited the dollar turnover, as a result, two exchange rates were formed in the country: official and unofficial.

Question No. 2. What is the forecast for the ruble to dollar exchange rate for the coming week?

When forecasting the exchange rate you should not take into account news events, politics, since these factors are not taken into account when making a forecast for the near future; they are too suspicious and unstable.

Since no significant change or stabilization of the exchange rate is expected in the near future, the ruble exchange rate for the next week will be 65-75 rubles against the dollar, since there are no special reasons for stabilizing the exchange rate.

We remind you that latest forecasts and analytics regarding the exchange rate of the dollar, ruble and other instruments for the next day, week, month can be found at link here 📊.

Question No. 3. When will the dollar fall (collapse)? Will the dollar fall soon?

The ruble exchange rate, as already mentioned, directly depends on investments in national economy. Moreover, the more investments are made in Russian capital, assets and the economy, the more reliable the position of the national currency will be. And such a process as investing in the Russian economy is associated with the position of the dollar in the country.

The exchange rate of the American currency is also affected by import balance And export . These indicators, for good economic growth of the country, must be at an appropriate level. The ideal situation is when the export of goods from a country exceeds the import of imported goods, this makes it possible to enrich the state budget.

Speaking about this balance, it is necessary to remember that America has biggest state debt . In addition, the United States has a large budget deficit, which creates the country's internal debt. Based on this, the value of the dollar as a world currency should fall.
But questions arise as to why, given this situation, the dollar remains the most reliable currency in the world.

People trust the dollar because the American currency is highly liquid and the most convertible currency in the world. Why do expert forecasts not come true year after year, and the dollar remains the most popular currency in the world? ? What consequences could there be of a falling dollar?

If the dollar does fall, another currency must come to replace it. It is necessary to think about what currency could replace the dollar in terms of convertibility, liquidity and reliability.

Many experts give Euro to replace dollar. But we should not forget that the currency of the European Union is relatively young, which is now also going through difficult years. Many EU countries are experiencing economic crisis . This is first and foremost Greece, Portugal, Spain and others.

America's large debt to these countries is also to blame for this stagnation. The euro also depends on the dollar, or rather on its exchange rate.

The dollar remained the most stable currency, even when all countries were experiencing a period of default and all stocks, real estate and assets fell in price. This helped the dollar strengthen its position even more. Even during the crisis, when everything depreciated, the dollar remained the most reliable currency.

Due to its stability, high liquidity and high conversion rate, many countries use it as a currency basket. exactly the dollar . This diversification occurs to preserve accumulated funds and possibly increase them.

This method is used by such economically strong states as Brazil, China, Russia and many other countries. Using the dollar as a currency basket promotes stability and demand for America’s national currency.

The state itself is doing everything possible to keep the exchange rate of its currency at a high level. If you believe the rumors that the fault economic crisis this was one of the “powerful moves” on the part of America, which was staged to maintain the national course.

As a method of maintaining the economic situation in America in 2008, it was decided to launch a new dollar cash flow. During this period there was over a trillion dollars printed.

America's actions did not lead to inflation, since the demand for the dollar did not decrease. As long as there is demand for the national American currency, the dollar exchange rate will not fall.

A fall in the dollar is only possible in the following cases:

1. sale by major countries of the world of treasury bonds of American currency and abandonment of the dollar as a currency;
2. If countries stop trading using the dollar, the American financial system will collapse. Russia is actively pursuing this method, selling its goods for rubles. Previously, this was simply unthinkable. It was necessary to sell oil for dollars, and then use the same currency to pay another country for the necessary assets or goods.

If each country uses its national currency, rather than the dollar, when trading and purchasing, then the exchange rate of the latter will go down. Countries will simply stop using American currency with today's activity, it will become less in demand.

Question No. 4. Will the dollar rise in 2019?

We have already described in detail possible forecasts for the dollar exchange rate. The dollar can both rise and fall. This also includes dependence on the Fed’s decision. Analysts and experts predict that the Fed plans to raise interest rate, which may negatively affect the ruble exchange rate.

8. What will happen to the ruble in the near future 2019: latest news + our fundamental and technical analysis of the market 💎

Periodically, we will publish our forecasts and our views on the ruble and dollar exchange rates, analyzing the market, conducting our own, mainly technical analyses.

*Forecast of the dollar exchange rate for the near future

From the last technical analysis It follows that the probability of the dollar falling below 55 and 50 rubles is minimal, as well as its growth above 85 rubles. In any case, you should conduct analytics and make forecasts yourself. Nobody knows the exact forecasts!!!

If you want to start trading on the Forex market yourself, we recommend using the services this forex broker.

9. Conclusion + video on the topic 🎥

Analyzing all the forecasts of world-famous banks and analytical experts, one can hope for a quick stabilization of the Russian national exchange rate. You just need to stock up on a certain amount of patience; the ruble exchange rate will strengthen soon.

But despite such rosy prospects, it is worth understanding that Russia today does not have the best economic situation, which can be affected by various actions, and not only internal , but also external political factors undertaken by the policies of other states.

Very precarious situation, shortage national budget and external sanctions haunt the residents of Russia. According to official statistics, in the last two years Russia has spent one hundred fifty billion gold and foreign exchange reserves. The waste was stopped, but if oil prices continue their decline, Russia will face full budget deficit.

After all, the country’s income will drop significantly, and to maintain the functioning level of the economy of such a huge state, considerable funds are required. The opinions of experts and leading banks are, of course, promising, but you should not rely only on their forecast.

All Russians want to believe in the stabilization of the national currency. Everyone is already tired of thinking about the dollar and waiting for the level to improve wages and pensions.

It is necessary to increase the purchasing power of the population, raise the level of the economy and the level of gross domestic product.

But we need to look at today’s situation through the prism of reality and not just wait for improvements, but contribute to them, buying goods national production and making deposits to national banks.

We hope that you now understand that everyone is looking for the answer to the questions - “What will happen to the dollar in the near future?”, “What will happen to the ruble?”, making their own forecasts and relying on their own principles.

If you have questions or suggestions, we are ready to discuss them in the comments to the article.

In conclusion, we suggest watching an interesting video

With the beginning of summer, the process should unfold again, which could weaken the dollar to 60 rubles, allowing Russians to purchase currency for their holidays. favorable exchange rate. However, at the end of the year, the “American” may again attack ruble positions.

The period of ascent of the ruble exchange rate coincided with an increase in prices for Brent oil, which during this time strengthened by almost 70 percent from the January minimum of $27.1 per barrel. Last week, against the background of the price of “black gold” of about 45 dollars per barrel, the Russian currency was trading around 65-66 rubles per dollar. However, such a strengthening of the ruble does not completely satisfy analysts at one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman Sachs. His strategist Kamakshya Trivedi said last week in an interview with Bloomberg that the fair value of the Russian currency should be considered a level below 60 rubles per dollar. In his opinion, the ruble still has potential to strengthen.

But it will definitely not happen in May, which is traditionally considered one of the weakest months for the Russian currency. Not least of all, because the population began purchasing dollars and euros for vacations abroad.

“There is a fairly high probability of a seasonal May correction in the markets. At the moment, fears of a slowdown in the global economy are returning, which could trigger a return of Brent quotes to the level of $40 per barrel,” he said. Rossiyskaya newspaper"Leading analyst of Promsvyazbank Dmitry Gritskevich. For the exchange rate of the domestic currency, such a cost of raw materials means a rollback in May to approximately 69 rubles per dollar, he believes.

According to Dmitry Gritskevich, the trend will change in the summer - oil prices may rise even above $50 per barrel due to the start of the automobile season in the United States with expectations of a gradual reduction in the imbalance of supply and demand in the energy market. “Such growth will allow the ruble to return to a wide range of 60-65 rubles per dollar, in which it is quite possible to think about buying currency,” the expert believes.

On the other hand, Russians who decide to purchase currency now may not end up losing. According to Anastasia Ignatenko, an analyst at the TeleTrade group of companies, the long period of growth in the ruble exchange rate that took place in winter and spring is a rather rare occurrence, so the emergence of reversal signals in the coming weeks. “Therefore, I predict a weakening of the ruble closer to the second half of the month, and signals for the growth of the US dollar and the euro will be the consolidation of rates above the levels of 67 and 77 rubles, respectively. The minimum targets for the rise in rates are seen to be levels of 71-72 rubles for the US dollar and 80-81 rubles for European currency," says Anastasia Ignatenko. This development of events is also supported by the dynamics of oil prices, which in recent weeks have not been able to significantly disperse either forest fires near fields in Canada or a serious decline in production levels in the United States.

The next meeting of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) may also affect the dollar exchange rate in June. In December 2015, the Federal Reserve raised the base interest rate for the first time in nine years from a historical low of 0-0.25 percent to 0.25-0.5 percent, increasing the price of the dollar relative to all other currencies and commodity assets. It remains at this level even now. So far, the market is predicting at most another increase for 2016, but in June the Fed will make a decision on the rate based on important data on the American labor market as an indicator of the health of the economy.

The national currency may gain a foothold near the level of 70 rubles per dollar in the fall

Last Friday it became known that the number of jobs in the United States in April increased by 160 thousand (200 thousand was expected), and wage growth remained at the forecast level of 0.3 percent. Such dynamics mean a relatively stable situation in the American economy and can still stimulate investor interest in the dollar. According to financial analyst Alexander Kuptsikevich, the released statistics open the way for the Russian currency rate to 70 rubles per dollar.

Today, a fairly extensive block of macroeconomic statistics is expected from the United States, which may strengthen the glimmering hopes that the decline in the growth rate of the world's largest economy will end.

Strong data was released on Friday retail sales and consumer sentiment. On Tuesday, an improvement in the picture can be recorded in the housing market (a report on new house starts and building permits is expected at 15.30 Moscow time) and in industry (a report on industrial production and capacity utilization is expected at 16.15 Moscow time). In addition, at 15.30 Moscow time the dynamics will become known consumer prices, which will have a major impact on Fed policy.

Later it will be possible to find out how such a turn in the economy influenced the opinion of representatives of the Federal Reserve - at 19.00 Moscow time, speeches by Dennis Lockhart and John Williams will begin. Well, the day will end at 23.30 Moscow time with a report on oil and petroleum product reserves from the American Petroleum Institute. Together with a similar report from the US Department of Energy coming out on Wednesday, it will determine the mood in the oil market until the end of the week.

No important data is expected on Thursday and Friday, so in the absence of negative surprises, such a macroeconomic agenda will contribute to the further strengthening of the dollar against the euro and the inertial attempts of oil to continue growth, which could be interrupted at any moment. For example, after a very possible increase in stocks on Wednesday.

Now it is obvious that no one is trying to run ahead of the locomotive and play for further strengthening. A barrel of oil costs 3,160 rubles, exactly as much as the budget needs to balance it with the expected deficit, and not as it was in March-April. In other words, the situation is equilibrium. What does this ultimately give? This gives a high chance of the dollar returning to 66 rubles by the end of this week, if Brent does not break through the level of 50+ dollars. And in the future, when a full-fledged correction of oil prices is formed, there will even be prerequisites for its final reversal with a serious goal of 69-70 rubles. But this will most likely happen in June.

Some support for this scenario may come from the publication of minutes from the last Fed meeting on Wednesday at 21.00 Moscow time, which may reflect tougher rhetoric regarding the timing of the next increase key rate. The likely strengthening of the dollar will lead to the fact that the euro/ruble exchange rate may show moderate growth and return slightly above 74 rubles.

According to OPEC estimates, in the third quarter the oil market may, for the first time in a long time, find itself in a state of excess demand over supply before returning to a state of excess supply. This, other things being equal, can support relatively high oil prices and help maintain a strong position in the national currency. But markets live by expectations and always move ahead.

The big question is whether it will really be possible to find a surplus in the oil market when the Gulf countries are hatching plans to regain market share lost to the United States. Therefore, it is worth buying currency now.

In the fall, both the dollar and the euro will probably be more expensive. Despite the fact that there are no full signals for a reversal yet, it can be stated that at current levels the ruble has limited growth potential.

Only higher oil prices can change the situation, but after a 70% increase from yearly lows and prices approaching US production cost levels, this increase is unlikely to be of a lasting nature.